Methods Helping in Life

Probabilistic Method

Relates to predicting the future.

This is the method I use most often. A bold claim, but it's how my brain has been wired for some time.

The most useful concept here is expected value. Though it's used with subjective probabilities, not real numbers most of the time ¹. As an example with numbers, say you have an apple—the probability of keeping it is 90% and of losing it 100-90%=10%. The expected value is 0.9 × 1 + 0.1 × 0 = 0.9 apples to keep.

Real cases have a probability distribution of different outcomes.

As I said, it's used with subjective probabilities. So instead of robust numbers, I use subjective evaluation, though I try to translate it to numbers rather than just using the certain/never happening spectrum. Most probabilities are either certain/never happening, close to 1 or close to 0; so they either won't affect a choice (multiply by 1) or throw out a choice (multiply by 0).

The entire field of probability and statistics is applicable here, though it's almost always applied casually due to a lack of data and is based mostly, in some sense, on gut feeling.

An example

The most recent and memorable case was when a landlord said she wanted to send someone to photograph the property, even after I'd sent a couple of videos of everything, acting all strange. I didn't like it. She said she had returned to the country and would like to come, but didn't have any time. Finally, I categorically denied this wish, stating that the person they wanted to send wasn't related to the contract—if you want to see it, come and see it yourself. I didn't get a response for a few days.

So my thoughts here were: with some probability she might come—so I'd better clean some more. The probability isn't high, because I think she's lying about being in the country. But what's the probability that she would do something foolish, like trying her own keys? Well, in this case it depended on expected value from her own perspective. I could be home, I could not be—would she gamble? Improbable. What would she get out of this, if everything's already on video? Almost nothing. So basically, everything else besides just coming in person is a poor choice for her, and the probability of this happening is negligible and can be ignored in planning. Hence, no anxiety—you're prepared.

Story ends with: she calls, says she wanted to come yesterday, but I ignored her message, then she states that she wants to come tomorrow. I say okay, she doesn't come. Then it's planned for another day, I say okay, she doesn't come. She wasn't in the country.

Concluding this case with an observation—some people will plot something, lie to you, and pressure you even when it's undeserved.

Concluding Probabilistic Method

Knowing people whose actions you predict, knowing the circumstances, and being able to put yourself in their shoes often leads to correct predictions.

Making good predictions gives you an edge in taking risks, which may be considered worthwhile upon evaluation.

Predicting the future and planning for it is a way to reduce randomness, vulnerability and anxiety.

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Subconscious as Feelings Source

I've noticed that you don't need to be conscious of things for them to affect you.

"Why am I, for lack of a better word, sad? Why do I have mixed feelings?" But that's not where it starts.

It's when you notice it that you may ask such questions.

But for a while, you're just there, in such a state. Subconsciously thinking that it makes sense to be in such a state.

Until you notice. And decide to move on from it.

You start asking questions and figuring things out. A common tool is rolling the tape back to the moment you were fine, and then rewinding what happened since that could have affected you. Writing poetry is another tool.

Factual Method

In my own words, "If I believe something to be true and I lie about it to myself—I need to stop lying to myself that it's true when the time comes to understand that being dishonest with myself is harmful."

For when you're stuck and to move forward, your best choice might be to be honest with yourself about something.

Subjective Perspective Method

It's about the distorted perspective of a single peculiar mind.

I use it often when I'm too critical of myself. What I do is imagine what other people's perspectives are on this.

This exercise almost always leads me to a more compassionate perspective.

Constant Reevaluation of Desires

Excitement about something often fades, only to leave confusion about why there's growing indifference or even annoyance.

You might need to think about it, because a situation has become absurd: I liked it, less so now.

There are quite a few paths you may walk from here, but the point is to make yourself less miserable.

Conclusion

This isn't a list of dogmas and my beliefs, but methods ², so they're not as preachy, but also applicable more broadly.

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